Chaos Theory

RIPPLE EFFECTS

* The gravitational attraction of a single electron at the edge of the known universe (10 billion light years away) is sufficient to cause an oxygen molecule on Earth to miss a predicted destination molecule within one hundred millionth of a second.

* It is impossible to predict mathematically whether a coin toss will land heads or tails up in a coin flip, because there are too many complex factors involved.

* A tiny change in a virus in African monkeys triggered the AIDS virus epidemic in humans around the world.

CAPTURING CHAOS

If you want to schedule your bar or bat mitzvah for a clear, sunny day in June, check the projected weather forecast–and then pray. You see, meteorologists can predict the weather a day, maybe a week in advance, but beyond that their forecasts are just guesses.

For four centuries, scientists believed that every cause had a single effect, and if you knew all of the starting conditions, you could accurately predict future weather. However, even though today’s meteorologists measure wind, humidity, temperature, and air pressure using elaborate networks of weather stations, and they understand the relationship between all of these variables, they still can’t say with certainty whether it will rain tomorrow.

That’s because it’s impossible to know all of the starting conditions in a complex system. For example, you may not know that a bird is flying through town, but that tiny little change in starting conditions sets off a chain reaction that can have drastic effects on the system. In addition, it is impossible to measure starting conditions with infinite accuracy. Even the difference between three and six decimal places in a calculation of humidity can make a monumental difference down the road. This uncertainty leads to what scientists call chaos. Chaos theory doesn’t say that anything is disorganized. Rather, it refers to the inability to make accurate predictions about the future behavior of a system like weather or coin tosses.